apocalypso
07/23/2007, 12:07
Part 1 of 4
Probability control is definitely one of the strongest powers, in my opinion because if i'm not mistaken, is the only power that can be used effectively on both players' turn, yours and your opponent's. :)
To illustrate, when you use outwit, you can only outwit one power of your opponent which would oftentimes be an offensive (impervious, senses, toughness, invul) or a defensive decision (HSS, superstrength, RS, charge etc.) unless of course, it is probability control that you are outwitting.
:knockedou The value modified by perplex only lasts during your turn so it would not be utilized up until your next turn. Obviously, offensive powers are usable only during your turn while defensive powers take effect during your opponents' turn. Probability control allows you to use it once during your turn (assuming you did attack) and once during your opponent's turn (again, assuming he did attack). From this point of view, we can immediately see the advantage probability control gets over other powers to some extent. :angry: Of course, probability control can't do anything about dealing extra damage which is of course other powers' specialty (RCE, CCE, Perplex, Outwit, SS etc.) but what I am trying to point out in this thread is that probability control can be very dangerous if correctly abused. To further illustrate this point, I had done a rough computation on the different probabilities of rolling a certain value for a dice roll. I included a calculation if there are multiple probability control figs in your army build. All computations assume that all probability figs come from your army.
The sample computations and matching discussions will be broken into 4 parts:
Part 1:For powers or actions requiring one dice, i.e. support, BCF, breakaway, plasticity, leadership etc.
Part 2:For attack rolls (Player as offense)
Part 3:For defensive purposes (Player as Defense)
Part 4 Bonus: for defensive powers i.e. super senses, Skrull, shape change and/or entangle
For one die rolls (i.e. support, BCF, breakaway, plasticity, leadership)
Result Roll 1PC 2PC 3PC 4PC
1 1.000 1 1 1 1
2 0.833 0.972 0.995 0.999 1.000
3 0.667 0.889 0.963 0.988 0.996
4 0.500 0.750 0.875 0.938 0.969
5 0.333 0.556 0.704 0.802 0.868
6 0.167 0.306 0.421 0.518 0.598
The first column is the result of the dice roll (or the result that you need).
The second column shows the probability that the dice roll to the left and higher is achieved. (e.g. 2 means prob to hit 2 or higher)
The 3rd column assumes you have 1 PC in your army and you use it to achieve the dice roll desired or higher in the first column. Since you used it, it means you have missed on your first roll. (e.g. you need a 4 to hit. You roll a 3,2 or 1 on 1st roll. Use PC. Then the total probability that you get a 4 with the PC is 0.75 instead of the 0.5)
The 4th column assumes you have 2 PC and you use both to achieve a value equal or higher than the value in the first column.
The 5th column assumes you have 3 PC and you use all.
The 6th column assumes you have 4 PC and you use all.
>> One can see the dramatic increase in the probabilities even with just 1 PC. Imagine using the BCF of echo on Surfer and you have a PC fig. Assuming you have hit him on the attack roll and still can use PC, then you now have a 75% chance of hitting surfer for 4 clicks or more, or a 30% chance to hit him for 6 clicks which is almost twice the probability when you don't even have one probability control.
Part 2 to follow. Feel free to post your comments or questions :)
PART 2 of 4
Part 1 shows how PC can affect your 1d6 rolls which would probably be used around 80% of the time on breakaway rolls. But it is not the 1d6 that really matters in this game. It is the ability to land your attacks on your opponents' figs. The earlier/faster and the more attacks you land on your opponent, the better it is. So here's the sample computation for the attack rolls again with the same assumptions that only the attacking player has X number of figs with PC :)
X First Roll
2 1.000
3 0.972
4 0.917
5 0.833
6 0.722
7 0.583
8 0.417
9 0.278
10 0.167
11 0.083
12 0.028
Take note here that the probability to roll a 2 and a 12 value (not 2 and higher) are equal which is 1/36. 3 and 11 (2/36), 4 and 10 (3/36), 5 and 9 (4/36), & 6 and 8 (5/36)also share the same characteristic of that 2 and 12. Rolling an individual 7 (6/36) has the highest probability.
"With One Prob"
2 1
3 0.999
4 0.993
5 0.972
6 0.923
7 0.826
8 0.660
9 0.478
10 0.306
11 0.160
12 0.055
An interesting note here: probabilities almost jumped twice especially for the higher rolls.
"With 2 Prob"
2 1
3 1.000
4 0.999
5 0.995
6 0.979
7 0.928
8 0.802
9 0.623
10 0.421
11 0.230
12 0.081
With 2 PC figs in your army, you have a >0.500 chance to hit a 9 and above roll. A 10 (0.42) is not that farfetched anymore. :)
"With 3 Prob"
2 1
3 1.000
4 1.000
5 0.999
6 0.994
7 0.970
8 0.884
9 0.728
10 0.518
11 0.294
12 0.107
A 0.29 prob to hit 11 and above is pretty decent if you ask me. :)
A 10 or higher roll now goes over the 0.500 mark.
"With 4 Prob"
2 1.000
3 1.000
4 1.000
5 1.000
6 0.998
7 0.987
8 0.932
9 0.804
10 0.598
11 0.353
12 0.131
So there you have it guys :) I don't think you'll usually see an army with 4 PC figs normally unless you're going to base you army on such a concept. But I have done it once and you'll be spending a lot of time re-rolling.
I used this army:
Johnny Quick
Johnny Thunder
Owlman
Sandman
Although i did not win the tournament due to the lack of damage potential, it was really fun to use this team. I even went up against the same team in the said tournament! :)
Probability control is definitely one of the strongest powers, in my opinion because if i'm not mistaken, is the only power that can be used effectively on both players' turn, yours and your opponent's. :)
To illustrate, when you use outwit, you can only outwit one power of your opponent which would oftentimes be an offensive (impervious, senses, toughness, invul) or a defensive decision (HSS, superstrength, RS, charge etc.) unless of course, it is probability control that you are outwitting.
:knockedou The value modified by perplex only lasts during your turn so it would not be utilized up until your next turn. Obviously, offensive powers are usable only during your turn while defensive powers take effect during your opponents' turn. Probability control allows you to use it once during your turn (assuming you did attack) and once during your opponent's turn (again, assuming he did attack). From this point of view, we can immediately see the advantage probability control gets over other powers to some extent. :angry: Of course, probability control can't do anything about dealing extra damage which is of course other powers' specialty (RCE, CCE, Perplex, Outwit, SS etc.) but what I am trying to point out in this thread is that probability control can be very dangerous if correctly abused. To further illustrate this point, I had done a rough computation on the different probabilities of rolling a certain value for a dice roll. I included a calculation if there are multiple probability control figs in your army build. All computations assume that all probability figs come from your army.
The sample computations and matching discussions will be broken into 4 parts:
Part 1:For powers or actions requiring one dice, i.e. support, BCF, breakaway, plasticity, leadership etc.
Part 2:For attack rolls (Player as offense)
Part 3:For defensive purposes (Player as Defense)
Part 4 Bonus: for defensive powers i.e. super senses, Skrull, shape change and/or entangle
For one die rolls (i.e. support, BCF, breakaway, plasticity, leadership)
Result Roll 1PC 2PC 3PC 4PC
1 1.000 1 1 1 1
2 0.833 0.972 0.995 0.999 1.000
3 0.667 0.889 0.963 0.988 0.996
4 0.500 0.750 0.875 0.938 0.969
5 0.333 0.556 0.704 0.802 0.868
6 0.167 0.306 0.421 0.518 0.598
The first column is the result of the dice roll (or the result that you need).
The second column shows the probability that the dice roll to the left and higher is achieved. (e.g. 2 means prob to hit 2 or higher)
The 3rd column assumes you have 1 PC in your army and you use it to achieve the dice roll desired or higher in the first column. Since you used it, it means you have missed on your first roll. (e.g. you need a 4 to hit. You roll a 3,2 or 1 on 1st roll. Use PC. Then the total probability that you get a 4 with the PC is 0.75 instead of the 0.5)
The 4th column assumes you have 2 PC and you use both to achieve a value equal or higher than the value in the first column.
The 5th column assumes you have 3 PC and you use all.
The 6th column assumes you have 4 PC and you use all.
>> One can see the dramatic increase in the probabilities even with just 1 PC. Imagine using the BCF of echo on Surfer and you have a PC fig. Assuming you have hit him on the attack roll and still can use PC, then you now have a 75% chance of hitting surfer for 4 clicks or more, or a 30% chance to hit him for 6 clicks which is almost twice the probability when you don't even have one probability control.
Part 2 to follow. Feel free to post your comments or questions :)
PART 2 of 4
Part 1 shows how PC can affect your 1d6 rolls which would probably be used around 80% of the time on breakaway rolls. But it is not the 1d6 that really matters in this game. It is the ability to land your attacks on your opponents' figs. The earlier/faster and the more attacks you land on your opponent, the better it is. So here's the sample computation for the attack rolls again with the same assumptions that only the attacking player has X number of figs with PC :)
X First Roll
2 1.000
3 0.972
4 0.917
5 0.833
6 0.722
7 0.583
8 0.417
9 0.278
10 0.167
11 0.083
12 0.028
Take note here that the probability to roll a 2 and a 12 value (not 2 and higher) are equal which is 1/36. 3 and 11 (2/36), 4 and 10 (3/36), 5 and 9 (4/36), & 6 and 8 (5/36)also share the same characteristic of that 2 and 12. Rolling an individual 7 (6/36) has the highest probability.
"With One Prob"
2 1
3 0.999
4 0.993
5 0.972
6 0.923
7 0.826
8 0.660
9 0.478
10 0.306
11 0.160
12 0.055
An interesting note here: probabilities almost jumped twice especially for the higher rolls.
"With 2 Prob"
2 1
3 1.000
4 0.999
5 0.995
6 0.979
7 0.928
8 0.802
9 0.623
10 0.421
11 0.230
12 0.081
With 2 PC figs in your army, you have a >0.500 chance to hit a 9 and above roll. A 10 (0.42) is not that farfetched anymore. :)
"With 3 Prob"
2 1
3 1.000
4 1.000
5 0.999
6 0.994
7 0.970
8 0.884
9 0.728
10 0.518
11 0.294
12 0.107
A 0.29 prob to hit 11 and above is pretty decent if you ask me. :)
A 10 or higher roll now goes over the 0.500 mark.
"With 4 Prob"
2 1.000
3 1.000
4 1.000
5 1.000
6 0.998
7 0.987
8 0.932
9 0.804
10 0.598
11 0.353
12 0.131
So there you have it guys :) I don't think you'll usually see an army with 4 PC figs normally unless you're going to base you army on such a concept. But I have done it once and you'll be spending a lot of time re-rolling.
I used this army:
Johnny Quick
Johnny Thunder
Owlman
Sandman
Although i did not win the tournament due to the lack of damage potential, it was really fun to use this team. I even went up against the same team in the said tournament! :)