Odds Chart

[twreuter]

Hello fellow Clixers!

Most successful Heroclix players know how to calculate odds. Is it wise to push and attack now? What is my opponent’s chance to hit with his Magneto in case I move my Cyclops into his line of fire? Those and other crucial gaming decisions are more easily made if you know how to calculate your odds.

For example the chance to roll a 7 or more is respectable 58.3% which drops to a meager 34.0 % if your opponent can use Probability Control on your roll, making it probably not worth pushing.

For all of you who are not so good at calculating odds I have provided a little odd sheet to use during your games. Sorry if someone has already done that.

http://i863.photobucket.com/albums/ab198/twreuter/Odds/Wahrscheinlichkeiten.jpg

Just print the the odd chart in case it appears too small to read on your screen.


Thomas

P.S: Sorry for any mistakes, English is not my first language.

[Timeshadow]

Nice chart there are "MANY" ppl I've played against/with that could probubly have used this chart lol!!

Oh and rep!!

[dweez009]

Sent rep now I can beat Norm

[twreuter]

I have added a fourth column to the odds chart. You can now also check out your chances in case both you and your opponent have Probability Control. Contrary to popular believe the two do not simply cancel each other out.

The new chart is here: http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/album.php?albumid=1392

[Jerry_Damage01]

Very cool. I could calculate odds for DDM and SWM when I played them. I never got around to figuring out the odds for clix though. I'll definately print this out.

[gfishfunk]

ooooh, rep!

Now I need to calculate the miss chance with super senses, shape change, and both.....

...and skrulls...

[lewddruid]

Rep to you fine sir, good day!

[Kyrremann]

Nice chart! Can I use it in my Heroclix rule application? Would be a nice addon. You will of course be credited!

http://hcrealms.com/forum/showthread.php?t=294336

[Mr Stranger]

ooooh, rep!

Now I need to calculate the miss chance with super senses, shape change, and both.....

...and skrulls...

I agree, having those on this chart would be very very helpful.



As is though, the chart is great and a huge thanks as I've been looking for this kind of thing for a while.

What did you use to figure the odds out?

[adamkomar]

I'm pretty sure you're not allowed to have any unofficial reference material like this at tournaments. You might wanna ask your judge before trying to use it.

[Kyrremann]

I'm pretty sure you're not allowed to have any unofficial reference material like this at tournaments. You might wanna ask your judge before trying to use it.

Oh? Hum...that we need to found out first.

[ShockValue]

I'm pretty sure you're not allowed to have any unofficial reference material like this at tournaments. You might wanna ask your judge before trying to use it.

Better get to memorizing then!

[Jerry_Damage01]

I'm pretty sure you're not allowed to have any unofficial reference material like this at tournaments. You might wanna ask your judge before trying to use it.

I'm pretty sure that means information on dials and notes about figures and things. I don't think that refers to the odds that your dice will hit. I'll post in the rules forum for clarification though.

[dkrmguy]

Nice chart but the odds never change no matter how many times you roll the dice. Only your 1st row is correct for each roll of the dice.

It's like flipping a coin. If you flip the coin 50 times your odds never improve from one flip to the next. You still only have a 50/50 chance at rolling heads each time.

[WhoaDirty]

Nice chart but the odds never change no matter how many times you roll the dice. Only your 1st row is correct for each roll of the dice.

It's like flipping a coin. If you flip the coin 50 times your odds never improve from one flip to the next. You still only have a 50/50 chance at rolling heads each time.

You are talking about independent events dkrmguy, whereas the chart is showing the odds for combined events. If what you are saying is true, then the odds of rolling a 12 on two dice would be the same as rolling a 7.

[adamkomar]

Better get to memorizing then!

Apathy works better for me.

[dkrmguy]

You are talking about independent events dkrmguy, whereas the chart is showing the odds for combined events. If what you are saying is true, then the odds of rolling a 12 on two dice would be the same as rolling a 7.

Each dice roll is an independent event that cannot be connected to the next dice roll. Odds of each roll are not improved just by rolling more.

[Ultim8 Avenger]

so how do you explain my crit miss x3? huh?

[adamkomar]

so how do you explain my crit miss x3? huh?

Allah, Buddha, God, Odin and Zeus all hate you. Satan's not a fan.

[gawain]

Each dice roll is an independent event that cannot be connected to the next dice roll. Odds of each roll are not improved just by rolling more.

Your chance of rolling a 7 or higher on the dice with one attempt is 58.3%. If you roll again, your chance will be 58.3%. That much is true. But, your chance of rolling a 7 in two tries is much higher--it's 82.6%, just like the table says. Each roll of the dice is independent, yes, but if you only need to achieve a given outcome only once, your chance of succeeding increases with each attempt you are able to make.

[Faster Than Flash]

for the newbs out there who know nothing about probability....

P(7) = (# of ways to roll 7) / (number of ways to roll 2 dice)
P(7) = 6/36 = 1/6
P(7 or better) = (# of ways to roll 7 8 9 10 11 12) / (number of ways to roll 2 dice)
P(7 or better) = 21/36

P(7 or better with two rolls) = 1-P(6 or less)*P(6 or less)
P(6 or less) = 1-P(7 or better) = 1-21/36 = 15/36
P(7 or better with two rolls) = 1-(15/36)*(15/36) = 119/144

I have an excel sheet with all the probs (including shape change, super senses, prob control etc...)

You can msg me and i'll email it to you.

[twreuter]

Nice chart! Can I use it in my Heroclix rule application? Would be a nice addon. You will of course be credited!
http://hcrealms.com/forum/showthread.php?t=294336

You - or any one else - can use this chart any way you want.

[Faster Than Flash]

please pm me your email when you want the excel prob chart I made.

thanks