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bill4935
05/31/2011, 16:06
<img src="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/80851/HCRealms.com/201104/bill-review-logo-8.jpg" style="width:200px;padding-right:5px" align="left"><center>all math edition
FEATURING
Tarot</center>

In GSX #021 Tarot we have a very simple dial with a very complicated Trait. To be able to use Tarot well, all you need is to know that Trait well, and know when you might get the powers you want.

For all the details, click Full Story below!

bill4935
05/31/2011, 16:07
gx021 U Tarot
Team: Brotherhood of Mutants
Range: 0 :bolt:
Points: 47
Keywords: Hellions
m-boota-fistd-shieldg-starburst79171791716816168151KOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKO:star: Major Arcana: Once during your turn, you may roll 2d6 that can't be rerolled. Based on the result, Tarot can use the corresponding power below until she makes this roll again. 2-3=Death. Give Tarot a power action and make a close combat attack targeting each opposing character within 3 squares. Roll a d6 and subtract 1. Each character hit is dealt that much damage. 4-5=Hermit. Tarot can use Barrier as if she possessed a range value of 3 and Poison. 6-8=High Priestess. Tarot can use Defend and Probability Control. 9-10=Fool. Tarot can use Leap/Climb and Perplex. 11-12=The Devil. Tarot deals penetrating damage. Once, at the beginning of your turn, deal 1 damage to each opposing character within 3 squares.

<img src="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/80851/HCRealms.com/201104/tarot.jpg" style="width:248px;margin-left:4px;" align="right" title="With a name like Hellions, did they ever think they weren't going to grow up to become super-villains?">Tarot has six different powers, including her Support power showing on the dial. The others appear depending on the number you roll. Lots of players don't like powers that can vary this much - they find it risky and unappealing. I believe that if you know the risks and can adapt to the powers that do turn up, this character will always do well for you.

So it's important to know how likely it is that you'll get each power, and your odds of getting her strongest powers, DEVIL and DEATH. (They are all useful, but at some point, you'll want her to do some real damage.)

On turn 1 when you roll for the Major Arcana power, here are your chances for each power:
Death: 8.34% of the time, Tarot gains this power.
Hermit: 19.44%
Priestess: 44.45%
Fool: 19.44%
Devil: 8.34%

If you didn't like the power you got, and tried again on turn 2, here are the chances to get these powers after two full turns.
Death: 16% of the time, Tarot gains this power by turn 2.
Hermit: 35%
Priestess: 69%
Fool: 35%
Devil: 16%

You can't use Probability Control to re-roll Major Arcana, but you can roll again at the start of every turn. If you wanted Devil or Death and kept rolling each turn until you got one of them, here's the odds for each turn you rolled.
After 1 turn: 16.68% chance that Tarot gains Devil or Death.
After 2 turns: 30.60%
After 3 turns: 42.16%
After 4 turns: 51.81%
After 5 turns: 59.90%

Top tip: I don't know if they will ever issue a rules change for Tarot. Keep an eye out for possible erratas on HCRealms (http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/showthread.php?t=310399) or at HeroClix.com (http://www.HeroClix.com) that change Tarot's powers to require line of fire. Until then, use the Devil to deal out armor-piercing poison that reaches 3 squares away through walls, friendly cannon fodder, blocking terrain, etc!

Is Tarot as strong as she seems? How did she work for you? Tell us what you think by posting your comments in the HCRealms.com units review by following the link here (http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/showthread.php?t=307655).

red king
05/31/2011, 16:29
I like her. I use her alot on any non keyword teams where I want to have that annoying character that they cant count on.

She is fun, and I usually end up with Defend/Prob controll or the Perplex/Leap Climb powers so she is always useful.

DARKKNIGHT188
05/31/2011, 16:46
My hellions team is 5-0! Thank you tarot!!!!!
Awesome review!

invisibo
05/31/2011, 16:55
Why would they issue a rules change on the Devil? There's nothing misleading about it (Like, say, John Stewart's old barrier token issues).

Kilowog17
05/31/2011, 17:06
... The percent chance of getting any of those powers wouldn't increase per turn, so the doubling of the percentages in 'turn two' is misleading.

To be honest, I'd avoid this character since it's powers are mostly based on luck and with only four clicks of life - It's not worth forty-seven points in a 300 point game (IMO).

Thunderclese
05/31/2011, 17:21
I'll have to put her on a young mutant squad some time.

realdarkphoenix
05/31/2011, 17:42
She's a amazing piece, I use her all the time. Wish I could go to a major tournament to expose her to the world

jmainse
05/31/2011, 17:42
Her powers aren't all that unpredictable. I can predict that I will never get the power that I am looking for when I need it. That said, she still makes a great support piece.

tenketsu
05/31/2011, 17:56
... The percent chance of getting any of those powers wouldn't increase per turn, so the doubling of the percentages in 'turn two' is misleading.

To be honest, I'd avoid this character since it's powers are mostly based on luck and with only four clicks of life - It's not worth forty-seven points in a 300 point game (IMO).

I think you're misunderstanding. He's saying, the TOTAL odds of having gotten that power at SOME POINT up to that point in time, if you were rolling for it every turn. Each individual roll has the same odds of any other--but the odds of at least one roll being X goes up the more rolls you make. Same way that after 1000 coin tosses the odds are still 50/50 on the next flip, even if all 1000 were heads, but if you set out to flip 1000 times, the odds of at least one flip being tails are much much better than 50/50.

bill4935
05/31/2011, 17:58
... The percent chance of getting any of those powers wouldn't increase per turn, so the doubling of the percentages in 'turn two' is misleading.


I should have made it more clear that these are cumulative probabilities. For example, after two turns you've had a second chance to roll again (if you didn't get the power you want on the first try) so your odds of eventually getting the power are higher.

EDIT: tenketsu got there before me. Rep incoming. Kilowog17, I think you've got your fedora screwed on too tight! :)

Kilowog17
05/31/2011, 18:30
Leave the Fedora out of this! XD

Yes, the chance of get a certain power increases with each consecutive turn, but the chance of getting that power is still the original percentage - So it's really no more reliable with each turn than the first.

Also - this piece's two most powerful traits require a three square distance. Too close in a game sometimes dominated with high range characters.

silversurfr77
05/31/2011, 18:32
Another GREAT review Bill. I don't always comment on them.....but rest assured, they are getting read. This one was really good as I have been wanting to field this piece for quite a while and just haven't gotten to her. I have a 300 point game coming up tomorrow, so this may be her chance.....Rep incoming sir. :)

tenketsu
05/31/2011, 18:33
EDIT: tenketsu got there before me. Rep incoming. Kilowog17, I think you've got your fedora screwed on too tight! :)

Thank you, thank you. I'll be here all week. Try the veal.

I like Tarot quite a bit, in my opinion the only bad result when rolling is the Barrier/Poison one, and even that can be useful briefly before you roll back out of it. I especially like that you can often start on PC, use it, then roll onto Perplex and use that too in the same turn, or vice versa. Kind've like the Professor X trick of Outwitting, pushing to attack, then Perplexing a secondary attacker and being healed back to Outwit after their attack. Less reliable, but less painful too.

kujonomore
05/31/2011, 19:01
Very cool, I did not see that before. Once you get a power you like you can continue to use it until you decide to reroll for the trait.

And I agree with Bill's math about the cumulative odds do effect the current roll.

tenketsu
05/31/2011, 19:05
Very cool, I did not see that before. Once you get a power you like you can continue to use it until you decide to reroll for the trait.

And I agree with Bill's math about the cumulative odds do effect the current roll.

No, that would be the Gambler's Fallacy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy), and not what Bill is saying.

What Bill is saying is, if at the beginning of the game you decide you're going to keep rolling until you get power X, these are the odds that on turn Y, you'll have gotten it. Which is a very different thing.

Kadris
05/31/2011, 22:14
the main thing i like about Tarot is the wording allows multiple powers to be used during the same turn. She could start with Prob Control, use it, then "during the turn" roll for a new power and get perplex.

My fondest memory of her is also my most painful of her. I managed to get Death, TK'd her to within range of everyone on my opponents team and rolled a 12 for the attack and then a 5 for the damage. Oh what a wonderful moment to bring to their knee's an entire team. But wait, whats this? its a team of hellfire club and all of them can mastermind to two guards? sigh, since all the attacks and damage are simultaneous, two hellfire guards take a collective 35 damage (15 on one, 20 to another)... and since Tarot has such a nice power now, they will proceed to dig her a grave big enough for the matchbox sized coffin of her "remains".

She may not look like much, but she is actually quite useful. When she does get one of her damaging powers she will take alot of heat due to the powers working regardless of line of sight and targeting.

dengar69
05/31/2011, 22:49
im with killawog on the math. You lose the power when you roll again so it is the same percentage every time!

tenketsu
05/31/2011, 22:50
im with killawog on the math. You lose the power when you roll again so it is the same percentage every time!

Please read carefully.

anonym0use
05/31/2011, 23:40
I really think this figure would make a great substitute for the Legion of Substitute Heroes Infectious Lass, just give the powers granted by the traints different names :Khundian stomach flu, Bolovoxian fever, etc.

DrugSex
05/31/2011, 23:49
A fun piece. I will never play her but i'll like to face some hellions teams that use her.

falconpunch
05/31/2011, 23:54
Please read carefully.

Will it help if I second this? No? I didn't think so. What if I use a mathematical formula?
WARNING: MATH CONTENT AHEAD!!!

The key is to think of it in terms of the odds you DON'T roll something "good" each turn. So 5/6 chance of getting a 4-10, to the Nth power, then subtract that from 1. And remember, we're STOPPING on a Devil or Death roll.

Formula: 1-((5/6)^N)= odds you've stopped on 2, 3, 11, or 12
Where N=number of turns you've tried

Also, think of this in terms of a million sweaty nerds rolling dice for a million Tarot figures. Probabilities even out as the sample size increases, so this may be more instructive than thinking in terms of one lone figure and his awful (or amazing) luck.

1st turn: 5/6 (.833) chance of a 4-10. 1-.833= 16.67% have hit.
2nd turn: (5/6)*(5/6), or 69.4% have missed so far, 30.6% have hit.
3rd turn: (5/6)^3= 57.8% have missed so far, 42.2% have hit.
4th turn: (5/6)^4= 48.2% have missed so far, 51.8% have hit.
10th turn: (5/6)^10= 16.1% have missed so far, 83.9% have hit.

So after 10 turns, 83.9% of the sweaty nerds have a Tarot that can potentially break Invulnerability. The rest just have a plain ol' support piece, who hopefully has been "supporting" the whole time. Or possibly she has been targeted and murdered in a zealous anti-pagan fury.

SevenFeathers
06/01/2011, 01:07
i like the fact that you can you start the turn with the previous turns power, use it, and the roll for another power :) thats how i use her

Soferiel
06/01/2011, 02:43
I have problems with the "Death" ability, I am usually trying to protect her so bad that when I get that ability she is not close enough to use it so it sucks!!!

LeMonJaLowe
06/01/2011, 04:18
I actually like her on some of my teams. We occasionally play a 300 point games/tourneys using characters that 50 points or under. So she comes in mighty handy then. Also placing her on a Hellions team is great. Also if I'm ever short by around 50 points I'll toss her on a team. Even if it's for her P.C. Depending on the map we use, I'll just put her into some hindering terrain and if I'm lucky enough to have someone with defend, it's all gravy.

IceHot
06/01/2011, 10:17
Will it help if I second this? No? I didn't think so. What if I use a mathematical formula?
WARNING: MATH CONTENT AHEAD!!!

The key is to think of it in terms of the odds you DON'T roll something "good" each turn. So 5/6 chance of getting a 4-10, to the Nth power, then subtract that from 1. And remember, we're STOPPING on a Devil or Death roll.

Formula: 1-((5/6)^N)= odds you've stopped on 2, 3, 11, or 12
Where N=number of turns you've tried

Also, think of this in terms of a million sweaty nerds rolling dice for a million Tarot figures. Probabilities even out as the sample size increases, so this may be more instructive than thinking in terms of one lone figure and his awful (or amazing) luck.

1st turn: 5/6 (.833) chance of a 4-10. 1-.833= 16.67% have hit.
2nd turn: (5/6)*(5/6), or 69.4% have missed so far, 30.6% have hit.
3rd turn: (5/6)^3= 57.8% have missed so far, 42.2% have hit.
4th turn: (5/6)^4= 48.2% have missed so far, 51.8% have hit.
10th turn: (5/6)^10= 16.1% have missed so far, 83.9% have hit.

So after 10 turns, 83.9% of the sweaty nerds have a Tarot that can potentially break Invulnerability. The rest just have a plain ol' support piece, who hopefully has been "supporting" the whole time. Or possibly she has been targeted and murdered in a zealous anti-pagan fury.

Actually I would say the odds are better then that.....
1st turn 16.67%
2nd Turn closer to 37%
3rd turn closer to 55%...

The reason is that one of those fail powers gives her PC and if she is determined she can use that after the 1st turn to get where she is going.

Schadenfreude
06/01/2011, 10:27
I really enjoy playing Tarot and have used her on a couple of competitive teams. Each of her MA roll results is useful and if she hits the horn hi-yo, you have a 47 point death dealing machine. What's not to like?!

falconpunch
06/01/2011, 11:20
one of those fail powers gives her PC and if she is determined she can use that after the 1st turn to get where she is going.

Wow, people are dead set on getting this wrong. Her trait starts off by saying "roll 2d6 that CAN'T BE REROLLED". So yeah, PC doesn't change anything...

Please read carefully.

tenketsu
06/01/2011, 11:52
Wow, people are dead set on getting this wrong. Her trait starts off by saying "roll 2d6 that CAN'T BE REROLLED". So yeah, PC doesn't change anything...

In fairness, it's easy to miss those 4 words because, unlike a few posts about how statistics work, they're unobtrusive. I've read Tarot's power several times over myself, and while I had a vague idea in my head that it couldn't be rerolled, I couldn't have told you why without having it right in front of me.

Bat-Phreak
06/01/2011, 12:09
I have never fielded Tarot, but have faced off against her multiple times.

She can influence character placement to an extent, since I do not want to end my turn with characters within 3-squares.

"Once during your turn" can be used during the "Beginning of Turn" phase. Since the sequence of events occurring at the "same time" is chosen by the active player, if Tarot's controller rolls The Devil, Tarot can immediately use it to cause Penetrating damage.

As previously mentioned, a 17-DV is not what it used to be and Tarot's short dial can make for a quick KO.

Grinner
06/01/2011, 12:38
I really think this figure would make a great substitute for the Legion of Substitute Heroes Infectious Lass, just give the powers granted by the traints different names :Khundian stomach flu, Bolovoxian fever, etc.

I love it! :grin:

UniqueLoginNamor
06/01/2011, 13:46
Also remember the Poion via hermet and the Devil both trigger at the begining of your turn (which is considered during your turn) So if you are on Hermit you can Poison, roll to Devil, Then use Devils free damage all in on turn

Wolverazio
06/02/2011, 00:50
Played a friendly game last week and threw her on (as I hadn't used her yet).

Got the Devil on her first turn.

She ended up doing lots of fun damage to the Clown Prince of Crime.

applejack
06/02/2011, 03:23
Keep her next to Jakeem Thunder while he's on his second click. He's got that awesome 19 Defend, and it's 20 if you got them in hindering. Have him tote her around and jump into the thick of it and see what happens. If things get too hot, he can airlift her out to a safe distance and she can use support on him.