I was thinking about this yesterday as I opened up my case. Yes, I got a chase (KC) Superman. But I didn't get other figures I wanted, like the SR Flash or SR Supergirl.

Of course, there are six out of twelve super-rares in each case. Assuming an even distribution, that means that each super-rare figure will only be found in every other case. So, they have a rarity of 1 per 2 cases.

The chase figures on the other hand have a rarity of 1 per 2 cases.

So...

Either all the chases are merely super-rare... or all the super-rares could be considered chases!

Okay, the one difference is that in a given case you expect to get six super-rares (now, six and a half on average, if we include the Supermen), whereas you might open a case and not get any chase Supermen.

But still, if you're looking for a particular figure, the Earth-1 pre-Crisis Supergirl is just as rare as the Earth-2 Superman.

Please forward this to eBay, so that I may acquire one more easily.

Not quite. If the chase is 1 per every 2 cases, then it would take (statistically) 4 cases to get both of them while it would take 2 cases to get all of the SRs. If the chase were one per case, then they would be the same rarity as SRs.

This seems to be true judging by reports. I'll just add that since there are 2 chases, a rarity of one chase in every second case actually makes the individual chases (1 in 4 cases) about twice as rare as individual super rares (1 in 2 cases).

Of course, I'm assuming the 1 in 2 chase rarity being reported is legit; I'm also assuming neither chase figure is more rare than the other.

I am starting to think that the rarity of a chase figure is closer to 1 in three cases.

Most of the people (2/3)who posted case numbers with their chase figure had a case number with the GCF = 3. Yeah I know it proves nothing especiall since the other (1/3) had case numbers with the GCF=2. Or maybe you can say 1 in 2.5 cases or 5 bricks. There is too much inconclusive data for this. But I thought I would throw it out there for fun.

I know many people who bought 2 cases and didn't get all the SR's.

Yeah, you probably won't actually get all the SRs in 2 cases, but you WILL get 12 SRs. So in a broad enough sample, say a 1000 cases, you'll end up with the numbers flattening out to 500 SR sets. So when someone says "all the SRs in 2 cases" he's only talking about a theoretical statistic.

I think he is looking at the numbers as if you are trying to pull a single SR.

Say you are looking for a Spectre. You will have to open 2 cases to find that one Spectre. If you are looking for the Chase superman You will have to open 2 cases to find it. It is not based on the whole set of SR's it is based on finding a Single SR in a case.

The interesting part is that you can open 2 cases, like so many people have done, and still not pull all of the SR's. Now you have to open a third case. This probability holds true for a chase figure as well.

So do I. Statistically, however, you should get all the SRs in 2 cases. That doesn't mean it happens in reality.

Well I prefer fact over theory. I have yet to see someone who bought 2 cases and got all the SR's.

Theory is how the rarity scheme works, though. "1 in 100 packs" or what have you is a statistic. If you read any fine print, they can't guarentee you that you'll get one if you BUY 100 packs. All they can guarentee you is as they made the packs, 99 of them didn't have it, and 1 did; rinse, wash, repeat.

It's like Dr. Pepper's current promotion. I bought about fourteen Dr. Peppers within the past two weeks. Only won one free Dr. Pepper, and rarity is supposed to be one in six.

So, as far as the super rares go, they're promising pretty much half the total numbers of super rares in a case, give or take. They can't guarentee you which ones you'll get without just sending out complete sets to people.